The Blueing and Greening of the Political Centre by Preston Manning
Globe and Mail – March 17, 2010

Ask Canadians where they place themselves on the political spectrum and a large majority (65%) say “the centre.” This is to be expected. After all, why did the Canadian cross the road? To get to the middle.

But what values and policies define “the centre”? Five federal elections ago, in 1997, the answer was “those mainly represented by Liberals.” Today the answer is “those mainly represented by Conservatives.” In other words, the colour of the centre has shifted from red to blue, with several interesting exceptions and significant implications for Canada and conservatives going forward.

Earlier this year the Manning Centre for Building Democracy asked pollsters Allan Gregg of Harris/Decima and Dr. André Turcotte of Carleton University to conduct a national public opinion survey on Canadian values and the extent to which they are or are not in alignment with conservative values and policies. [Readers can examine a detailed report on the survey results by visiting www.manningcentre.ca.]

Respondents were presented with a series of “value statements” and asked whether they agreed or disagreed with them (strongly or weakly on a scale of 1 to 7). Those receiving majority levels of public support were:
• Nothing is more important than family (89%)
• Marriage, by definition, is between a man and a woman (67%)
• Abortion is morally wrong (60%)
• Learn from what worked in the past to solve problems (54%)
• Better to implement small changes than all at once (54%)

In addition, the following value statements also received high (though not majority) levels of support:
• Patriotism, strong military, necessary to advance national interests (44%)
• There is a right and wrong, not all about individual perception (42%)
• Private sector before government to solve economic problems (36%)

What is significant is that all of the above value propositions are more strongly associated with conservative values and policies than with those of liberals or social democrats. This is not to say that values and positions more strongly espoused by liberals and social democrats are not supported but, as shown below, the levels of support are for the most part significantly lower:
• Tolerance and moderation are what it is all about to be Canadian (50%)
• People holding different values/beliefs make society richer (47%)
• We have a responsibility to look after those less fortunate (43%)
• Government action is the best way to solve economic problems (31%)

That an increasing number of positions and policies of the Harper government are commanding more support from voters (the majority of whom are centrists) is therefore not surprising:
• 6 of 10 Canadians support reducing taxes on corporations to stimulate economic growth
• 7 of 10 support the government’s spending practices despite projecting a $56 billion deficit this year.
• 6 of 10 support abolition of the long gun registry
• 6 of 10 believe the government is doing “just enough” to deal with the recession
• 5 of 10 believe the government is doing “just enough” to deal with climate change
• 8 of 10 think the military should leave Afghanistan in 2011 as planned

In addition to the “blueing of the centre,” the poll results provide several other insights. For example, they reflect a deepening ambivalence toward the role and capacities of government which may in part explain the declining public interest in politics and elections. While 84% of respondents say that the government should play a major role in managing the economy, most do not want governments to do more to reduce income inequalities or to stimulate economic recovery and growth. Only 39% think “that government can be very helpful,” and only 34% believe that the federal government has a “big impact” on their lives. When asked who or what they rely on first in time of need, 8 out of 10 respondents say they turn first to family rather than look to government for assistance.

Finally, with respect to sustaining and enlarging the Conservative base of support so as to secure a parliamentary majority, the poll results are particularly instructive with respect to the potential contributions of social conservatives and green conservatives.

Social conservatives should take heart that a majority of Canadians say they believe abortion to be morally wrong and that marriage constitutes the union of a man and a woman. But while a majority of Canadians appear to hold these more traditional views, a majority also believe that governments should play only a minor role or no role at all in the regulation of individual behaviour or morality. This would suggest that if social conservatives wish to retain and expand public support, they should rely less on urging government interventions and more on proposing non-governmental initiatives to advance their causes.

Finally, when the pollsters compared the key values and policies embraced by the majoritarian centre with those embraced by mainstream conservatives, they found a surprising degree of convergence, except in one area – environmental protection. Canadian voters at the centre attach high value to environmental protection, while such a value is not yet strongly identified with mainstream conservatism. As I have pointed out in previous columns, there is no inherent reason why conservatives should be ambivalent on the environment, since conservation and conservatism come from the same root, since living within our means ecologically is a logical extension of living within our means fiscally, and since markets (in which conservatives strongly believe) can be effectively harnessed to environmental conservation.

Suppose therefore that the “big Conservative tent” erected by Stephen Harper and Peter Mackay on foundations laid by the Progressive Conservatives, Reform, and the Canadian Alliance could be enlarged one more time to include green conservatism as well as the red and blue varieties? The prospects of commanding even greater support from the electoral centre would be enhanced, as would the prospects of achieving a majority Conservative government.

Preston Manning is President and CEO of the Manning Centre for Building Democracy (www.manningcentre.ca).